Bioweapons Attack Chain Model

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  "summary": "Multiplicative attack chain model estimates catastrophic bioweapons probability at 0.02-3.6%, with state actors (3.0%) showing highest estimated risk due to lab access. DNA synthesis screening offers highest modeled cost-effectiveness at \\$7-20M per 1% risk reduction, with defense-in-depth providing 5-25% total reduction through targeting multiple bottlenecks. Recent expert virology benchmarks and competing biosecurity assessments suggest the AI uplift parameter carries greater uncertainty than earlier RAND findings indicated.",
  "description": "A quantitative framework decomposing AI-assisted bioweapons attacks into seven sequential steps with independent failure modes. Estimates overall attack probability at 0.02-3.6% with state actors posing highest estimated risk. Defense-in-depth approaches offer 5-25% risk reduction with varying cost-effectiveness across intervention types.",
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