AI-Bioweapons Timeline Model

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  "title": "AI-Bioweapons Timeline Model",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Timeline model projects AI-bioweapons capabilities crossing four thresholds: knowledge democratization already partially crossed (fully by 2025-2027), synthesis assistance 2027-2032 (median 2029), novel agent design 2030-2040 (median 2035), and full automation 2035+ (median 2045). Expected risk level 5.16/10 by 2030; optimal intervention windows are narrow (2024-2028 for most), with DNA synthesis screening needing \\$500M-1B to delay Threshold 2 by 3-5 years.",
  "description": "This model projects when AI crosses capability thresholds for bioweapons. It estimates knowledge democratization is already crossed, synthesis assistance arrives 2027-2032, and novel agent design by 2030-2040.",
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