Genetic Enhancement / Selection

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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-20",
  "llmSummary": "Genetic enhancement via embryo selection currently yields 2.5-6 IQ points per generation with 10% variance explained by polygenic scores, while theoretical iterated embryo selection could achieve 15-30 IQ points by 2050+. Extremely unlikely (<1%) path to transformative intelligence due to 20-30 year generation times versus AI's 1-2 year capability doubling, making it strategically irrelevant for near-term AI prioritization despite comprehensive technical coverage.",
  "description": "Analysis of using genetic selection (embryo selection, polygenic scores) or enhancement to increase human intelligence. Current polygenic scores explain ~10% of IQ variance with gains of 2.5-6 IQ points per selection cycle. Iterated embryo selection could theoretically yield 1-2 standard deviation gains but requires unproven stem-cell-derived gamete technology (estimated 2033+). Very unlikely path to TAI due to 20-30 year generation times vs AI's 1-2 year capability doubling, but strategically relevant as human enhancement alternative.",
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