LongtermWiki Impact Model

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  "title": "LongtermWiki Impact Model",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-20",
  "llmSummary": "Fermi estimation of LongtermWiki value grounded in base rates. GiveWell shows 3% of donors choose based on effectiveness research; 80k Hours achieves ~107 significant plan changes/year; think tanks rarely demonstrate causal policy impact. Conservative central estimate: \\$100-500K/yr in effective value through researcher onboarding (primary), funder information improvement (secondary), with high-variance 'inspiration' pathway that's hard to quantify. Much lower than naive estimates due to: limited counterfactual impact of information on decisions, small target audience, and low probability of behavioral change.",
  "description": "Fermi estimation of LongtermWiki's potential value, grounded in base rates from GiveWell, 80k Hours, think tanks, and knowledge infrastructure projects. Central estimate: \\$100-500K/yr effective value with high uncertainty.",
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