Carlsmith's Six-Premise Argument

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  "summary": "Carlsmith's framework decomposes AI existential risk into six conditional premises (timelines, incentives, alignment difficulty, power-seeking, disempowerment scaling, catastrophe), yielding ~5% risk by 2070 (updated to >10%). Comparison with superforecasters reveals largest disagreements on P3 (alignment difficulty: 40% vs 25%) and P4 (power-seeking: 65% vs 35%), with combined estimates differing ~10-25x.",
  "description": "Joe Carlsmith's probabilistic decomposition of AI existential risk into six conditional premises. Originally estimated ~5% risk by 2070, updated to >10%. The most rigorous public framework for structured x-risk estimation.",
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      "text": "Carlsmith (2022)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353",
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      "resourceTitle": "Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?"
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