Compounding Risks Analysis

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  "summary": "Mathematical framework quantifying how AI risks compound beyond additive effects through four mechanisms (multiplicative probability, severity multiplication, defense negation, nonlinear effects), with racing+deceptive alignment showing 3-8% catastrophic probability and interaction coefficients of 2-10x. Provides specific cost-effectiveness estimates for interventions targeting compound pathways (\\$1-4M per 1% risk reduction) and demonstrates systematic 2-5x underestimation by traditional additive models.",
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