Safety Spending at Scale

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  "title": "Safety Spending at Scale",
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  "summary": "Models what AI safety spending could accomplish at different budget levels from \\$1B to \\$50B+/year. Current global safety spending (~\\$500M-1B/year) is 100-600x below capabilities investment. At \\$5B/year, could fund 5,000+ dedicated safety researchers, comprehensive interpretability programs, and independent evaluation infrastructure. Key finding: absorptive capacity is the binding constraint below \\$10B/year—the field cannot productively absorb unlimited funding without growing the researcher pipeline (current ~1,000 qualified safety researchers globally). Above \\$10B/year, institutional capacity and research direction clarity become primary constraints. Provides concrete portfolio recommendations at each funding level.",
  "description": "Analysis of what \\$1-50B+ annual AI safety budgets could accomplish, examining absorptive capacity constraints, research portfolio design, talent pipeline requirements, and the gap between current spending and what meaningful safety would require.",
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