Future Projections

Overview

This section explores different scenarios for how AI development might unfold. Scenario analysis helps prepare for multiple futures rather than betting on a single prediction.

Scenario Analysis Uses

Scenarios help:

• Test robustness — Which interventions help across scenarios?
• Identify early signs — What would indicate we're heading toward each?
• Prepare contingencies — What should we do if each materializes?
• Communicate — Make abstract risks concrete

Key Uncertainties

The scenario we end up in depends heavily on:

• AGI timelines (sooner favors speed, later favors preparation)
• Alignment difficulty (harder favors pessimistic scenarios)
• Coordination success (better coordination enables pause/redirect)
• First-mover dynamics (monopoly vs. multipolar outcomes)