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Future Projections

Overview

This section explores different scenarios for how AI development might unfold. Scenario analysis helps prepare for multiple futures rather than betting on a single prediction.

Scenario Analysis Uses

Scenarios help:

  • Test robustness — Which interventions help across scenarios?
  • Identify early signs — What would indicate we're heading toward each?
  • Prepare contingencies — What should we do if each materializes?
  • Communicate — Make abstract risks concrete

Key Uncertainties

The scenario we end up in depends heavily on:

  • AGI timelines (sooner favors speed, later favors preparation)
  • Alignment difficulty (harder favors pessimistic scenarios)
  • Coordination success (better coordination enables pause/redirect)
  • First-mover dynamics (monopoly vs. multipolar outcomes)