Cyber Offense-Defense Balance Model

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  "title": "Cyber Offense-Defense Balance Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Models cyber offense-defense balance with AI, projecting 30-70% net attack success improvement (B_OD ratio 1.2-1.8, best estimate 1.45) driven by automation scaling and vulnerability discovery. Quantifies intervention impacts: government defensive R&D could shift balance by -0.2 to -0.4, with 35% probability offense maintains 30%+ advantage through 2030.",
  "description": "This model analyzes whether AI shifts cyber offense-defense balance. It projects 30-70% net improvement in attack success rates, driven by automation scaling and vulnerability discovery.",
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