Relative Longtermist Value Comparisons

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  "title": "Relative Longtermist Value Comparisons",
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  "llmSummary": "Relative value framework comparing longtermist funding vehicles to a GiveWell reference. Key findings: (1) Coefficient Navigating TAI Fund is ~50x–500,000x per GEU vs global health under longtermist priors; (2) LTFF is 0.3x–10x per dollar relative to Coefficient TAI, higher variance; (3) Anthropic stock (secondary market) has near-zero to slightly negative expected value vs direct safety funding; (4) 1 year before TAI is worth ~\\$1B–\\$100T in AI safety research equivalents; (5) all comparisons are dominated by P(x-risk) and moral weight of future people as key cruxes.",
  "description": "A quantitative framework for comparing the expected value of different longtermist allocations on a common scale. Using GiveWell-Equivalent Units (GEUs) as the reference, this model finds that \\$1 to AI safety (Coefficient Navigating TAI Fund) is worth roughly 50x–500,000x per GEU compared to global health under longtermist assumptions — a ratio whose magnitude hinges primarily on P(existential catastrophe) and the tractability of reducing it. \\$1 of Anthropic stock on the secondary market has ambiguous or slightly negative expected value relative to direct safety funding.",
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