AI Compute Scaling Metrics

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  "summary": "AI training compute is growing at ~4-5× per year with algorithmic efficiency improving ~3× per year (halving effective compute cost every ~8 months), while the compute landscape is shifting toward inference-dominant workloads (~50% in 2025, projected 67% in 2026). Big-4 hyperscaler capex is projected to approach \\$700B combined in 2026, with the US holding ~75% of global GPU cluster performance. The page tracks these empirical metrics alongside AI coding tool adoption as an acceleration indicator and Anthropic's scaling challenges as a case study, while documenting criticisms including capability-compute decoupling, benchmark limitations, and diminishing pre-training returns. Key safety implications include timeline compression from compound compute-plus-efficiency gains and a narrowing governance window as compute concentration enables tractable monitoring interventions.",
  "description": "Empirical tracking of measurable indicators of AI compute scaling: training compute growth, GPU deployment, capital expenditure, inference shifts, and safety implications.",
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