Good Judgment Inc. — COVID-19 Forecasting

[Forecasting] Grant Investigator: Luke Muehlhauser This page was reviewed but not written by the grant investigator. Good Judgment Inc. staff also reviewed this page prior to publication. Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $75,500 with Good Judgment Inc. to expand its efforts to aggregate, publish, and track forecasts about the COVID-19 outbreak with the hope that the forecasts can help improve planning by health security professionals and the broader public, limit the spread of the virus, and save lives. The forecasts are aggregated each day from the most accurate 1-2% of forecasters from a large-scale, government-funded series of forecasting tournaments, plus an annual uptake of a handful of top performers from the nearly 40,000 forecasters on Good Judgement Open. This is related to our broader work on biosecurity and pandemic preparedness. This project was supported through a contractor agreement. While we typically do not publish pages for contractor agreements, we occasionally opt to do so. The grant amount was updated in June and October 2020, and in January 2021.