Good Judgment Inc. — Forecasting Review on Power-Seeking AI

[Forecasting] Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $231,000 with Good Judgment Inc. to support a review by “superforecasters” (people with a strong track record of making accurate predictions) of Open Philanthropy research analyst Joe Carlsmith’s report on whether power-seeking AI is an existential risk. The report includes Carlsmith’s predictions on a number of questions; the reviewers will make their own predictions for those questions. The reviewers were also commissioned to make predictions on when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be developed and on how likely it is that AGI will cause humanity's extinction or permanently curtail humanity's potential. This follows our March 2020 contract. This project was supported through a contractor agreement. While we typically do not publish pages for contractor agreements, we occasionally opt to do so. Update, 10/19/23: The review has now been published.