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Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
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Alignment Research Center (ARC)

Safety Organization
Founded Oct 2021 (5 years old)HQ: Berkeley, CAalignment.org ↗

Also known as: ARC, ARC Alignment

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Prediction Markets

12
QuestionProbabilityPlatformCategoryResolves
Will 'Towards Alignment Auditing as a Numbers-Go-Up Science' make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?14%Manifoldother–
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?–Manifoldcapability2026-04-30
Will AI reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability (METR)?35%Metaculuscapability–
Model with METR time horizon ≥8 hours released in 2026?96%Manifoldcapability2026-12-31
Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon–Manifoldcapability–
By 2026, will OpenAI commit to delaying model release if ARC Evals thinks it's dangerous?13%Manifoldsafety–
What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?–Manifoldcapability2026-12-31
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?–Manifoldcapability2026-10-31
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?31%Manifoldcapability2026-10-20
Will Paul Christiano be confirmed as joining the US AI Safety Institute (USAISI) by April 1st, 2024?–Metaculusleadership2024-04-01
GPT 5.2 METR time horizon–Manifoldcapability–
Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026–Manifoldcapability2026-12-31