| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | 100% | Polymarket | regulation | 2025-12-31 |
| What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be? | – | Manifold | valuation | 2030-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI hit 750+ Billion Dollar Valuation Before March 31st, 2026? | 81% | Manifold | valuation | 2026-03-31 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap — what range will it fall into? | – | Polymarket | valuation | 2026-12-31 |
| Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI in 2026 | – | Manifold | leadership | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026? | – | Metaculus | ipo | 2027-01-01 |
| Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027? | – | Metaculus | revenue | 2028-01-03 |
| OpenAI solves alignment before June 30, 2027? | 1% | Metaculus | safety | 2027-07-15 |
| OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July 2026? | 6% | Polymarket | regulation | 2026-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-6 by the end of 2026? | 78% | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Year OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic reach valuation of $1 trillion? | – | Metaculus | valuation | 2030-04-01 |
| What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? | 30% | Polymarket | other | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | 23% | Polymarket | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI API prices fall before March 14, 2026? | – | Metaculus | revenue | 2026-03-14 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 15% | Polymarket | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI go public in 2026? | – | Manifold | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-6 released by…? (multiple date options) | 79% | Polymarket | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above threshold? | – | Polymarket | valuation | 2027-12-31 |
| GPT-6 released in 2026? | 78% | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1 July 2026? | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-07-01 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30, 2025? | 25% | Polymarket | leadership | 2025-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? | 22% | Manifold | revenue | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026? | – | Manifold | revenue | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026? | 99% | Manifold | capability | 2026-07-01 |
| GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the OpenAI Non-Profit announce major AI Safety funding in 2025? | 51% | Manifold | safety | 2025-12-31 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2029? | 72% | Manifold | ipo | 2029-01-01 |
| GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI's revenue in 2024 | – | Metaculus | revenue | 2025-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026? | 10% | Metaculus | ipo | 2026-03-15 |
| Will OpenAI have revenues of at least $5 billion (ARR) by the end of year 2025? | 99% | Manifold | revenue | 2025-12-31 |
| OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025? | – | Metaculus | capability | 2026-01-01 |
| Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026? | 99% | Manifold | capability | 2026-07-01 |
| GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date | 73% | Manifold | capability | 2027-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026? | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-06-01 |
| OpenAI IPO by...? | 34% | Polymarket | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1 July 2026? | 47% | Manifold | capability | 2026-07-01 |
| GPT-5.5 released by...? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | 33% | Polymarket | other | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025? | 99% | Manifold | revenue | 2025-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? | 22% | Manifold | other | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman (and OpenAI)? | 35% | Polymarket | regulation | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI go public in 2026? | 44% | Manifold | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026? | – | Manifold | revenue | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? | 25% | Polymarket | leadership | 2026-06-30 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2029? | 72% | Manifold | ipo | 2029-01-01 |
| Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI (in 2026) | – | Manifold | leadership | 2026-12-31 |
| What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-6 released in 2026? | 78% | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |