| xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? | 82% | Polymarket | capability | 2026-06-30 |
| Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? | 79% | Polymarket | capability | – |
| Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026? | 20% | Manifold | other | 2026-12-31 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? (includes xAI as an outcome at 25.5%) | 26% | Polymarket | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Grok 4.20 (xAI) release date | – | Manifold | timeline | 2026-05-01 |
| Will xAI release Grok 4.20? | – | Manifold | timeline | 2025-12-31 |
| xAI IPO in 2025? | 2% | Polymarket | ipo | 2025-12-31 |
| Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? | 65% | Polymarket | timeline | 2026-06-30 |
| Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models with AISI prior to release? | 18% | Manifold | safety | – |
| xAI acknowledges MechaHitler in today's Grok 4 presentation? | 53% | Manifold | safety | – |
| Grok 5 (xAI) release date | 25% | Manifold | timeline | 2026-04-30 |
| Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026? | 32% | Manifold | safety | 2026-01-01 |
| Will x.ai move away from 'Grok' branding in 2026? | 29% | Manifold | other | 2026-12-31 |
| Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public? | 10% | Manifold | capability | – |
| Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status? | 90% | Manifold | capability | – |
| Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029? | 28% | Manifold | other | 2029-12-31 |
| Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035? | 46% | Manifold | valuation | 2035-01-01 |
| Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2025-07-31 |
| Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026? | 51% | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Will xAI receive preferential treatment by the Trump administration in 2025? | 17% | Manifold | regulation | 2025-12-31 |
| Will xAI rank above OpenAI at EOY? | 23% | Manifold | capability | – |
| Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026? | – | Manifold | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the publicly disclosed xAI market cap exceed OpenAI's market cap at end of year 2025? | 13% | Manifold | valuation | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2025-03-31 |
| When will xAI release Grok 4? | – | Manifold | timeline | – |
| New version of Grokipedia before December 31, 2026? | – | Manifold | timeline | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035? | 46% | Manifold | valuation | 2035-01-01 |
| xAI IPOs by EOY 2026? | 12% | Manifold | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (xAI outcome) | 29% | Polymarket | capability | 2026-06-30 |
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | 100% | Polymarket | other | 2026-06-30 |
| Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-03-31 |
| Will the publicly disclosed xAI market cap exceed OpenAI's market cap at end of year 2025? | 18% | Manifold | valuation | 2025-12-31 |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | 8% | Polymarket | other | 2026-06-30 |
| When will Grok 3 weights become publicly available? | – | Manifold | timeline | 2026-05-11 |
| Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | – | Metaculus | capability | 2024-09-30 |
| Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026? | – | Manifold | ipo | 2026-12-31 |
| Grok 5 released by...? | 65% | Polymarket | timeline | 2026-06-30 |