Quick Assessment
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Primary Role | Superforecaster and AI Policy Researcher |
| Key Affiliations | Good Judgment, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, RAND, ControlAI, Sentinel |
| Focus Areas | AI existential risk, biological risks, geopolitical forecasting, global catastrophe early detection |
| Notable Contributions | Sentinel early warning system, AI x-risk forecasting, EA Forum discussions on utilitarianism and bias |
| Community Presence | Active on EA Forum |
Overview
Vidur Kapur is a superforecaster and AI policy researcher affiliated with multiple forecasting organizations including Good Judgment, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, and RAND, while also working as an AI Policy Researcher at ControlAI. His work focuses on existential risks from AI, biological threats, and geopolitical instability, with particular emphasis on early detection and rapid response to global catastrophes.
Kapur is a key member of the Sentinel team, a project dedicated to early detection and response for global catastrophes. The project emphasizes rapid foresight on timescales of days to weeks, positioned as increasingly critical as AI capabilities integrate into society and potential dangers escalate. His forecasting work spans AI timelines, catastrophic risk scenarios, and geopolitical events, contributing to organizations that collectively shape risk assessment in the effective altruism and AI safety communities.
Beyond forecasting, Kapur maintains an active presence on the Effective Altruism Forum, where he contributes posts and commentary on utilitarianism, political bias, ethics, and cause prioritization. His dual focus on technical forecasting and philosophical engagement positions him as a bridge between quantitative risk assessment and broader EA community discussions.