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strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics
webAuthors
Ross Gruetzemacher·Shahar Avin·James Fox·Alexander K. Saeri
Credibility Rating
4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: ScienceDirect
Published in Futures journal (Elsevier), this study applies simulation gaming methodology to AI race dynamics, offering practical strategic insights relevant to AI governance researchers and policymakers concerned with competitive AI development pressures.
Metadata
Importance: 58/100journal articleprimary source
Summary
This paper uses simulation gaming methodologies to analyze competitive AI development dynamics, exploring how race conditions between actors affect decision-making, safety tradeoffs, and strategic behavior. It provides empirical insights into how competitive pressures shape AI development choices and potential governance interventions.
Key Points
- •Uses simulation gaming (wargames/scenario exercises) to model AI race dynamics between competing actors such as nations or firms
- •Examines how competitive pressures create incentives to deprioritize safety in favor of speed during AI development races
- •Identifies strategic interaction patterns including defection from safety norms under competitive conditions
- •Explores potential governance mechanisms and coordination strategies that could mitigate dangerous race dynamics
- •Provides empirically grounded strategic insights that complement theoretical models of AI competition
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Volume 167 , March 2025 , 103563 Strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics
Author links open overlay panel Ross Gruetzemacher a b c , Shahar Avin c d , James Fox e f , Alexander K. Saeri g h Show more Add to Mendeley Share Cite https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103563 Get rights and content Under a Creative Commons license Open access Highlights
• The development of advanced AI typically leads to AI races between states (e.g., U.S., China) or AI firms (e.g., OpenAI, Google); cooperation is very difficult.
• Race dynamics in advanced AI development increases the risk of AI safety failures or geopolitical failures, dramatically decreasing the likelihood of positive futures.
• Outcomes leading to positive futures almost always require coordination between actors who by default have strong incentives to compete — both for firms and nations.
• Actors with the resources and understanding of the risks are rare, and have outsized potential to increase risk (e.g., by racing) or to improve safety (e.g., via supporting technical safety research).
• AI development does not happen in isolation — it affects, and is affected by, geopolitics, economical factors, social factors, and state actions.
Abstract
We present insights from `Intelligence Rising’, a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance. Previous article in issue
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Keywords
Artificial intelligence Scenario role-playing game Immersive learning F
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