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Metaculus AGI Question
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
This Metaculus question serves as a live aggregation of crowd forecasts on AGI timelines, useful for understanding how the informed forecasting community assesses the pace of AI development over time.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100otherreference
Summary
A Metaculus community forecasting question tracking crowd-sourced predictions for when artificial general intelligence will be achieved. The question aggregates probabilistic estimates from forecasters worldwide, providing a continuously updated community median and distribution of expected AGI arrival dates.
Key Points
- •Aggregates probabilistic forecasts from the Metaculus community on when AGI will be developed
- •Provides a continuously updated median prediction and confidence intervals based on community input
- •Reflects evolving consensus as new AI developments influence forecaster expectations
- •Useful as a reference point for how informed forecasters assess AGI timelines
- •Community predictions have historically shifted earlier as AI capabilities have advanced rapidly
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Self-Improvement and Recursive Enhancement | Capability | 69.0 |
| AI Acceleration Tradeoff Model | Analysis | 50.0 |
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HTTP 200Fetched Apr 21, 20261 KB
652 comments 1.8k forecasters When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? Current estimate Jun 2032 Share Predict Top Key Factors View all (10) ↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals later 10 1 AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting) Earlier 15 3 AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing later 4 0 ↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes Earlier 9 0 China starts a war with Taiwan Earlier 63 22 Strong regulation of AI companies by US government Earlier 44 8 Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047) later 5 2 Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it) later 8 1 Comments Timeline Key Factors Question Info Timeline 1d 1w 2m all Resolution Criteria Key Factors (10) Background Info Follow embed Author : Matthew_Barnett Opened : Aug 23, 2020 Closes : Jan 1, 2080 Scheduled resolution : Jan 1, 2080 Spot Scoring Time : Aug 25, 2020 AI Progress Essay Contest AGI Outcomes Computing and Math Artificial Intelligence
Resource ID:
0aa1710a67875e8e | Stable ID: sid_Cut4UcPgCP