On the Extinction Risk from Artificial Intelligence
webCredibility Rating
High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: RAND Corporation
A RAND Corporation report examining AI-driven extinction risk through scenario analysis of nuclear weapons, pathogens, and geoengineering, concluding extinction is challenging but not impossible, and providing risk indicators and mitigation recommendations.
Metadata
Summary
RAND researchers conducted a scenario-based analysis of AI's potential to cause human extinction via nuclear weapons, pathogens, and geoengineering. They found extinction threats would be immensely challenging to realize but could not be ruled out, and that such threats would likely unfold slowly enough to allow human response. The report identifies risk indicators and recommends broader AI risk study, resilience-building, and a research agenda to reduce uncertainties.
Key Points
- •AI-driven extinction risk was evaluated across three technology domains: nuclear weapons, pathogens, and geoengineering.
- •Researchers found it would be immensely challenging for AI to create an extinction-level threat, though the possibility cannot be ruled out.
- •Extinction threats would likely develop slowly, giving humans time to detect and respond before irreversible harm occurs.
- •The report identifies specific risk indicators for each scenario and recommends building human resilience and studying AI risks more broadly.
- •A research agenda is proposed to reduce uncertainties and improve understanding of AI-related extinction risk.
Cached Content Preview
On the Extinction Risk from Artificial Intelligence | RAND
Feb
MAR
Apr
16
2025
2026
2027
success
fail
About this capture
COLLECTED BY
Collection: GDELT Project
TIMESTAMPS
The Wayback Machine - http://web.archive.org/web/20260316153913/https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3034-1.html
Skip to page content
Toggle Menu
Site-wide navigation
Topics
Trending
International Trade
Iran
Artificial Intelligence
Chronic Diseases and Conditions
Emergency Preparedness
Topics
Children, Families, and Communities
Cyber and Data Sciences
Education and Literacy
Energy and Environment
Health, Health Care, and Aging
Homeland Security and Public Safety
Infrastructure and Transportation
International Affairs
Law and Business
National Security
Science and Technology
Social Equity
Workers and the Workplace
All Topics
Research & Commentary
Experts
About
Research Divisions
RAND's divisions conduct research on a uniquely broad front for clients around the globe.
U.S. research divisions
RAND Army Research Division
RAND Education, Employment, and Infrastructure
RAND Global and Emerging Risks
RAND Health
RAND Homeland Security Research Division
RAND National Security Research Division
RAND Project AIR FORCE
International research divisions
RAND Australia
RAND Europe
Services & Impact
Careers
Graduate School
Subscribe
Give
Cart
Toggle Search
Search termsSubmit
RAND
Research & Commentary
Research Reports
RR-A3034-1
In this report, RAND researchers examine the threat of human extinction posed by artificial intelligence (AI). Using a scenario-based analysis to evaluate three technologies — nuclear weapons, pathogens, and geoengineering — they found that it would be immensely challenging for AI to create an extinction threat, although they could not rule out the possibility. They identify risk indicators and make recommendations to mitigate future risk.
On the Extinction Risk from Artificial Intelligence
Michael J. D. Vermeer, Emily Lathrop, Alvin Moon
ResearchPublished May 6, 2025
Download PDF
Share on LinkedIn
Share on X
Share on Facebook
Email
The capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have accelerated to the point at which some experts are advocating that it be taken seriously as a credible threat to human existence. In this report, RAND researchers examined and seriously considered the threat of human extinction posed by artificial int
... (truncated, 10 KB total)0e4d4932a5522c58 | Stable ID: sid_BaCj0ltltd