Metagame Conference Prediction Market - Manifold
webA minor Manifold prediction market about a specific conference; tangentially related to AI safety communities that use prediction markets for forecasting and coordination.
Metadata
Importance: 8/100otherreference
Summary
A Manifold Markets prediction market asking whether the Metagame Conference will take place as planned. This is a forecasting question about a specific event, with limited direct AI safety relevance beyond demonstrating prediction market mechanisms for event coordination.
Key Points
- •Prediction market on Manifold platform forecasting whether the Metagame Conference will occur
- •Demonstrates use of prediction markets for tracking real-world event outcomes
- •Metagame conferences often focus on strategy, rationality, and coordination topics adjacent to EA/AI safety communities
- •Manifold Markets uses play money, making it accessible for low-stakes forecasting practice
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Lighthaven (Event Venue) | Organization | 40.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 7, 20263 KB
Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? | Manifold Skip to main content MANIFOLD Sign up Open options Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? Ricki Heicklen 13 Ṁ1k Ṁ25k resolved Sep 17 Resolved YES 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL Metagame is a weekend conference about game design, strategy, narrative, and play currently scheduled for September 12-14, 2025. It's run by Arbor and is planned to take place at Lighthaven in Berkeley, California.
Will it actually end up being September 12-14?
If the conference happens on any of the dates included in September 12-14, 2025, this market will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO. (So, if it ends up just being the 13th and 14th, that's a YES, if it gets moved entirely off that weekend or cancelled it's a NO).
Note that the date has already changed a couple times, most recently from September 5-7 to September 12-14.
We have not signed any contracts with the venue yet as of 12/29/2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold. Market context Generate September 2025 Metagame Sign up Get 1,000 to start trading! 🏅 Top traders
# Trader Total profit 1 Ṁ352 2 Ṁ261 3 Ṁ103 4 Ṁ72 5 Ṁ52 3 Comments 12 Holders 25 Trades Open options Sort by: Open options Newest Jay🔹 Open options @ mods (it happened)
Jay🔹 Open options @ RickiHeicklen Did Metagame happen
Ricki Heicklen bought Ṁ1,250 YES Open options @ RickiHeicklen We signed a contract with Lighthaven, and have secured a handful of speakers, so I think it's pretty likely to happen, barring major emergencies. Holy cow I am so excited.
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Will there be a Metagame 2026? Isaac King 72% chance Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2026? chris (strutheo) 99% chance Will I participate in another MtG Regional Championship before 2027? Aryeh Zax 45% chance Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035? Timothy Currie 41% chance Will https://www.humandirectedfutures.org/ conference run again in 2026? 2-COCHAIN STORK 50% chance Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecast
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