Reframe the U.S.-China AI Arms Race – Georgetown Security Studies Review

Reframe the U.S.-China AI Arms Race – Georgetown Security Studies Review 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
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 Photo Credit: Financial Times 

 

 By: Daniel Zhang, Columnist 

 In the past five years, there has been an explosive increase in the use and research of artificial intelligence in emerging military technologies. A faceoff between the United States and China is almost guaranteed and some even suggest a forthcoming “AI arms race” between two great powers. [i] However, the concept of “AI arms race” oversimplifies the upcoming AI revolution. “AI” itself is an ambiguous term while “arms race” does not capture the entirety of what’s coming next. Framing AI developments as a new Cold War era arms race risks overlooking the complexities of AI technology, the non-military impact of AI, and the need for private-public partnerships in national security.

 The disruptive potential of AI is real, and US and China are actively competing in researching the revolutionary implications of AI for defense. In 2017, China released the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan,” which stated its aim to lead the world in AI by 2030. [ii] While the Pentagon continued to advance AI initiatives with the establishment of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC) in 2018, [iii] the US government struggles to come up with a comprehensive national AI strategy. [iv] To wisely counter the threats in China’s AI plan, the US must focus on advancing research on specific technologies and analyze their broader impact outside the military realm.

 To start with, artificial intelligence is not a single technology but a wide range of techniques with various applications. Without detailing the exact use and abilities of specific AI applications in military, the abuse of the term – especially in media – could be misleading. AI is not a weapon despite narratives such as “killer robot” and “autonomous machine” in Hollywood movies. In the foreseeable future, the application of AI in the military spans from cognitive electronic warfare to video and imagery analysis by computer algorithms like Project Maven. [v] Machine learning, or specifically deep learning, currently tops the list among all AI technologies for defense application. Deep learning techniques, such as the use of deep neural networks and pattern recognition, allow machines to learn by analyzing huge amounts of data. While the Chinese government and military are heavily invested in deep learning [vi] the US is not taking deep learning seriously. Limited steps were taken by the government [vii] or the Pentagon [viii] to explore AI technologies including deep learning as of early 2018, however. It appears that only a single project on deep learning is currently in the works. [ix] An AI expert once commented that nobody in the Pentagon “

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