Epstein & Robertson (2015)
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Credibility Rating
Gold standard. Rigorous peer review, high editorial standards, and strong institutional reputation.
Rating inherited from publication venue: PNAS
Foundational empirical study on how algorithmic ranking systems can covertly manipulate democratic outcomes; directly relevant to concerns about AI systems influencing human beliefs and decisions at scale without user awareness.
Metadata
Summary
Epstein & Robertson (2015) demonstrate through five randomized controlled experiments with 4,556 undecided voters that biased search engine rankings can shift voting preferences by 20% or more without users' awareness. The study introduces the 'Search Engine Manipulation Effect' (SEME), showing that a dominant search engine company could covertly influence election outcomes at scale, particularly in countries with limited search engine competition.
Key Points
- •Biased search rankings shifted undecided voter preferences by 20%+ in controlled experiments across the US and India, with larger effects in some demographic groups.
- •Crucially, manipulation could be masked so users showed no awareness of the influence, making SEME a covert and deniable form of persuasion.
- •The fifth experiment was conducted with real eligible voters during India's 2014 Lok Sabha elections, demonstrating real-world applicability.
- •Given that many elections are decided by small margins, a single dominant search engine theoretically has the power to sway numerous elections undetected.
- •SEME may generalize beyond elections to influence a wide range of attitudes and beliefs, raising broader concerns about algorithmic control over public opinion.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Preference Manipulation | Risk | 55.0 |
Cached Content Preview
# The search engine manipulation effect (SEME) and its possible impact on the outcomes of elections Authors: Robert Epstein, Ronald E. Robertson Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Published: 2015-08-18 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1419828112 ## Abstract Significance We present evidence from five experiments in two countries suggesting the power and robustness of the search engine manipulation effect (SEME). Specifically, we show that ( i ) biased search rankings can shift the voting preferences of undecided voters by 20% or more, ( ii ) the shift can be much higher in some demographic groups, and ( iii ) such rankings can be masked so that people show no awareness of the manipulation. Knowing the proportion of undecided voters in a population who have Internet access, along with the proportion of those voters who can be influenced using SEME, allows one to calculate the win margin below which SEME might be able to determine an election outcome.
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