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Forecasting Global Disasters – Sentinel Team (Manifund Grant Page)
webmanifund.org·manifund.org/projects/forecasting-global-disasters
A Manifund fundraising page for Sentinel, a forecasting organization led by Nuño Sempere focused on predicting global disasters and catastrophic risks, relevant to AI safety through its work on existential risk foresight and automated monitoring tooling.
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Summary
This is a Manifund fundraising page for Nuño Sempere's Sentinel project, which aims to forecast global disasters and catastrophic risks. The project has transitioned into a 501c3 with a forecasting team, focusing on foresight and automated tooling. It received a $50,000 grant from ACX Grants 2025 toward a $1.5M goal.
Key Points
- •Sentinel is a forecasting organization focused on global disaster and catastrophic risk prediction, led by top forecaster Nuño Sempere, co-founder of Samotsvety.
- •The project has evolved from an informal effort into a 501c3 nonprofit with a forecasting team and over a year of runway.
- •Current focus includes AI-assisted OSINT tooling and automated foresight systems (e.g., 'eye-of-sauron' and 'ai-osint-mvp' GitHub projects).
- •Funding tiers range from $5K (incremental value) to $1M (scaling to the level of Epoch or METR).
- •If unfunded, the team may seek FLF or Open Philanthropy support, pivot to subscriptions/hedge fund services, or downsize.
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Forecasting global disasters | Manifund
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The Wayback Machine - http://web.archive.org/web/20251230214735/https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-global-disasters
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Forecasting global disasters
ACX Grants 2025
Nuño Sempere
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$50,705raised
$1,500,000funding goal
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Note: You can see a longer WIP fundraiser here: <https://xrisk.fyi/fundraiser>
Description of proposed project
Here is our funding memo from last year: <https://docs.google.com/document/d/18GWF0pVy5X7M_0e3l49Ze82aqHvVurVpsLm63htmc64/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105745069467002633267> since then we have focused more on foresight specifically, and made more emphasis on building automated tooling, essentially due to funder apetite.
Why are you qualified to work on this?
On the forecasting end: top forecaster, previously cofounded Samotsvety. https://samotsvety.org/ - https://samotsvety.org/track-record/
On the institution-building end: I have been able to transition this from an informal project into a 501c3 with a running forecasting team and enough funding for a bit over a year, and similar (but a bit older) people in my peer group (Jaime Sevilla) have been able to build larger organizations without that much difficulty.
Other links
blog.sentinel-team.org
https://x.com/search?q=from%3A%40SebKrier%20Sentinel&src=typed_query
https://x.com/NeelNanda5/status/1917287979430863241
https://github.com/NunoSempere/eye-of-sauron
https://github.com/NunoSempere/ai-osint-mvp
What would you do if not funded?
We continue working on this until the end of the year, and we seek alternative funding from the FLF (seems somewhat likely) or Open Philanthropy (seems possible but the process is like pulling a tooth). If neither works then we try to become sustainable via subscriptions or through offering services to hedgefunds. If that doesn't work, we shut down or greatly downsize. Overall I'd model the value of a donation as allowing us to grow faster + increasing runway + increasing likelyhood of surviving sustainable. Which is to say, there is some value of information in seeing what the larger version of Sentinel can look like, but less value of information than for a new project.
How much money do you need?
$5K to $1M. Donations in the $5K range add up and soon become real money. At the $50-100K I'd hire an additional programmer/growth marketer/response person. D
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