Future of Life Institute Nuclear War Research Grant Program

All Grant Programs Nuclear War Research 

 With the risk of nuclear weapons use growing and the recent threats to use nuclear weapons, a deeper evidence-based understanding of the consequences of nuclear war is urgently needed. Status: Funds allocated 

 Grants archive

 An archive of all grants provided within this grant program: Project title Advanced ensemble projections for indirect impacts of nuclear war in global food systems 

 Amount recommended $462,024.00 Primary investigator Christian Folberth , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Details Technical Abstract

 Climate disruptions following a nuclear conflict would substantially affect food security, putting large parts of mankind at risk of starvation as has been shown by climate-crop modelling studies. Yet, earlier studies did not integrate comprehensive uncertainties in crop models across various intensities of climate perturbations from different levels of atmospheric soot injection, the potentials and limitations of adaptation such as timing of growing seasons or crop choice, and further disruptions in agricultural production such as fertilizer and labor shortages. Herein, we propose a project that will set out to address these research gaps by harnessing the comprehensive crop modelling capacities of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) ensemble to simulate secondary climatic impacts of nuclear conflict on global crop production at various levels of stratospheric soot injection for the above adaptation options and extended impacts. This will provide the thus far most comprehensive assessment of potential impacts on crop production and the available option space for adaptation under the working hypotheses that adaptation potential is limited and supply chain disruptions may substantially exacerbate impacts already at lower intensities of soot injection.

 Project title Constraining Nuclear War Fire Emissions and their Impacts on the Climate System 

 Amount recommended $450,000.00 Primary investigator Francesco S.R. Pausata , University of Quebec in Montreal Details Technical Abstract

 Recent threats and growing nuclear arsenals are increasing the risk of a nuclear war. Besides the immediate threat of nuclear-weapon explosions, many uncertainties remain about the impact on climate of the subsequent widespread fires as the emitted particles are able to interact with solar radiation. Currently, previous studies have injected only soot over a very short time frame (1 day or one-model time step) and have not included any other particles such as organic or brown carbon that can be over 10 times larger in amount compared to soot during, for example, forest fires.In this study, we will use a set of models of different complexity from a fire-plume model to a fully coupled Earth System Model to investigate the plume composition, its development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war. 

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