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# AGI/Singularity: 9,800 Predictions Analyzed

[![Cem Dilmegani](https://research.aimultiple.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/headshot-of-Cem-Dilmegani-160x160.png.webp)](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/cem-dilmegani/)

[Cem Dilmegani](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/cem-dilmegani/)

with

[Sıla Ermut](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/sila-ermut/)

updated on Feb 26, 2026

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Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is when an AI system matches human cognitive abilities across all tasks. Based on available predictions, quick answers on AGI:

**Will AGI/singularity happen?** [AGI is inevitable](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#why-experts-believe-agi-is-inevitable-key-arguments-evidence) according to most AI experts.

**When will the singularity/AGI happen?** [Recent surveys of AI researchers](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#results-of-major-surveys-of-ai-researchers) predict AGI in 2040s. According to [community forecasts](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#community-insights), AGI is expected around 2030s. [Entrepreneurs are predicting it to happen in a few years.](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#insights-from-ai-entrepreneurs-individual-researchers)

We analyzed 9,800 AI scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’ and the community’s predictions in the AGI timeline:

## Artificial General Intelligence timeline

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026Year of Prediction2025203020352040204520502055206020652070Expected Year of AGI Development

Scientists

Individuals

Prediction Markets

The timeline above outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 8 surveys and responses from 9,800 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets:

As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected.

Here is how we created this graph:

- To plot the expected year of AGI development on the graph, we used the weighted average of predictions for each year within each category. For example, if there were multiple Prediction Market forecasts in 2022, we calculated their weighted average and plotted that value.
- For individual predictions, we included forecasts from 15 AI experts.
- For scientific predictions, we collected survey results from 8 peer-reviewed papers that provide timelines for AGI.
- For prediction markets & community insight predictions, we used:
  - Over 1,100 p

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