The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism — Christian Tarsney, Synthese (2023)
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Tarsney's peer-reviewed analysis of the epistemic challenge to longtermism examines whether long-term unpredictability undermines longtermist arguments for prioritizing far-future outcomes, directly relevant to AI safety reasoning about existential risks and decision-making under uncertainty.
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Christian Tarsney examines the epistemic challenge to longtermism—the objection that long-term effects of present actions are too unpredictable to guide decision-making, even given the far future's astronomical importance. Using two simple models comparing longtermist and neartermist interventions, Tarsney finds that longtermism's case depends on either accepting minuscule probabilities of enormous payoffs (Pascalian fanaticism) or relying on non-obvious empirical assumptions about predictability. The analysis reveals that while expected value maximization may support longtermism, this conclusion is fragile and contingent on controversial premises about uncertainty and rational choice.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Longtermism's Philosophical Credibility After FTX | -- | 50.0 |
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# The epistemic challenge to longtermism Authors: Christian Tarsney Journal: Synthese Published: 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11229-023-04153-y
33680e8fbf414f91 | Stable ID: sid_RVeJiGbBp7