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Kalshi's Business Breakdown & Founding Story
reportresearch.contrary.com·research.contrary.com/company/kalshi
This is a fintech business analysis with minimal direct AI safety relevance; prediction markets are occasionally referenced in AI safety contexts for forecasting and information aggregation, but this report focuses on Kalshi's commercial and regulatory dimensions rather than epistemics or AI applications.
Metadata
Importance: 12/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
Contrary Research provides a comprehensive analysis of Kalshi, the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, covering its founding story, regulatory journey to become a Designated Contract Market, business model, competitive landscape, and growth opportunities in democratizing event-based financial trading.
Key Points
- •Kalshi received CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market in 2020, making it the first regulated US exchange for event contracts.
- •Users can trade on outcomes across climate, financial, and cultural events, with Kalshi's mission focused on economic risk management tools for everyday Americans.
- •The platform operates in the context of broader retail trading democratization, with retail traders reaching 23% of stock trading volume by early 2023.
- •As of late 2023, Kalshi had raised $30.2M in Series A funding and employed approximately 49 people.
- •The report covers key risks including regulatory uncertainty and competitive threats from unregulated prediction markets like Polymarket.
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Deny Accept Kalshi
Fintech Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users to trade directly on the outcomes of specified events. In 2020, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Kalshi as an authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM), making it, in Kalshi’s words, the first regulated exchange for event contracts. Events that can be traded on include climate events such as the highest temperature in Chicago on a given day, financial events like the yearly range of the S&P, or cultural events like which film will win the Oscars. Kalshi’s mission is to “give Americans a tool to take control of economic risks that affect their everyday lives”.
Tags
Fintech Founding Date
Jan 2018
Headquarters
New York, New York
Total Funding
$30.2M
Status
Private
Stage
Series A
Employees
49
Careers at Kalshi Updated
December 7, 2023
Reading Time
17 min
Memo
Thesis
Founding Story
Product
Market
Market Size
Competition
Business Model
Traction
Valuation
Key Opportunities
Key Risks
Summary
Authors
Authors
Tyler Lasicki
Fellow
See articles Sachin Maini
Editor
See articles Memo
Updated
December 7, 2023
Reading Time
17 min
Thesis
Sustained economic growth and digital advancement following the 2007-2009 financial crisis have led to a surge in retail trading and the broader democratization of capital markets. As of February 2023, retail traders contributed roughly 23% of total stock trading volumes, a notable increase from 15% in 2022. As the number of retail investors has grown, the variety of what holds financial value has also expanded. Digital assets , sports memorabilia , and even sneakers became tradeable assets that hold value.
Increased accessibility to markets has been made possible by financial product innovation and the growth of online trading platforms like Robinhood, TD Ameritrade , and Public which have contributed to collectively lowering the cost and friction of investing by offering commission-free trading , fractional shares , and no minimum deposits required.
One of the markets that has gained traction in this environment has been prediction markets . Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts representing the likelihood of future events, leveraging collective intelligence to generate forecasts. These markets operate on the principle of supply and demand, with prices reflecting the consensus on event probabilities.
Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users to trade directly on the outcomes of specified events. In 2020 , the Commodity Futures Trading Commis
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