Back
Metaculus x GiveWell Forecasting Tournament (Manifund Project Page)
webA crowdfunding page for a forecasting tournament where Metaculus and GiveWell collaborate to generate probabilistic forecasts on charity grant outcomes, tangentially relevant to AI safety through its use of forecasting methodologies and epistemic tools.
Metadata
Importance: 12/100othertool
Summary
This Manifund project page documents a collaborative forecasting tournament between Metaculus and GiveWell, offering cash prizes for high-quality forecasts and reasoning about GiveWell's expected grant outcomes. The tournament raised $4,500 in prize money and closed January 1, 2025, with GiveWell reviewing top comments. It aims to improve charitable giving decisions through crowd-sourced probabilistic reasoning.
Key Points
- •Metaculus and GiveWell partnered to run a forecasting tournament on expected charity grant outcomes, with prizes up to $300 for top comments.
- •Prize pool of $4,500 was raised via Manifund crowdfunding, with 100% of funds awarded to tournament winners.
- •High-quality forecaster comments were to be shared with GiveWell to inform their grant decision-making process.
- •Tournament closed January 1, 2025; GiveWell reviewed submissions to select top-ranked forecasts.
- •Demonstrates use of prediction markets and forecasting tournaments as tools for improving philanthropic decision-making.
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 11, 20264 KB
Metaculus x Givewell Forecasting Tournament | Manifund
Dec
JAN
Feb
15
2025
2026
2027
success
fail
About this capture
COLLECTED BY
Collection: Common Crawl
Web crawl data from Common Crawl.
TIMESTAMPS
The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20260115140732/https://manifund.org/projects/metaculus-x-givewell-forecasting-tournament
Manifund
Home
Login
About
People
Categories
Newsletter
Home
About
People
Categories
Login
Create
2
Metaculus x Givewell Forecasting Tournament
Science & technology
Global health & development
Leonard Barrett
Complete
Grant
$4,500raised
p]:prose-li:my-0 text-gray-900 prose-blockquote:text-gray-600 prose-a:font-light prose-blockquote:font-light font-light break-anywhere empty:prose-p:after:content-["\00a0"]">
Project summary
GiveWell’s mission is to find the charities that deliver the greatest impact per dollar spent to help donors decide where to give. To support this, they publish forecasts on expected grant outcomes. Now, Metaculus and GiveWell invite you to forecast and share your reasoning to help GiveWell help others in a tournament with cash prizes for the winners.
Metaculus will share high-quality comments with GiveWell after the submission deadline. Prizes will be awarded in January 2025.
How will this funding be used?
The current prize pool is as follows:
The max award for a single participating commenter is $1,000
Ten prizes will be distributed as follows:
The 1st place comment wins $300
2nd & third place comments each win $275
The 4th through 10th place comments each receive $200
Donating to this Manifund page will increase the prize pool, in a method decided by the Metaculus team.
Note: Employees of GiveWell, their immediate family members, and those living in the same household are not eligible for prizes.
Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?
The Metaculus team is running this forecasting tournament in collaboration with Givewell. Metaculus has run a large number of tournaments in the past — see here for more examples and more details.
Note: this page was quickly set up by @saulmunn, and doesn't necessarily faithfully represent the views of Metaculus.
Tab: Comments
Comments3Donations5Similar6
Leonard Barrett
12 months ago
Final report
p]:prose-li:my-0 text-gray-900 prose-blockquote:text-gray-600 prose-a:font-light prose-blockquote:font-light font-light break-anywhere empty:prose-p:after:content-["\00a0"]">
Description of subprojects and results, including major changes from the original proposal
The tournament closed on January 1. Givewell is currently reviewing the comments generated by forecasters in the tournament and I will update with results once they have selected the top comments.
Spending breakdown
100% of funds raised
... (truncated, 4 KB total)Resource ID:
410637ac64ac3220 | Stable ID: sid_LtQCR2vC34