Research note: A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032

[Research note: A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#)

10 min read

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[Why make this?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Why_make_this_)

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[Scope and limitations](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Scope_and_limitations)

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[The model](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#The_model)

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[Parameter values](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Parameter_values)

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[Graphs](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Graphs)

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[Observations](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Observations)

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[Discussion](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Discussion)

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[More on modeling choices](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#More_on_modeling_choices)

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[List of differences from the AIFM](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#List_of_differences_from_the_AIFM)

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[How could we better estimate the parameters?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#How_could_we_better_estimate_the_parameters_)

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[Why is automation logistic?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Why_is_automation_logistic_)

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[Why are labor and compute Cobb-Douglas?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Why_are_labor_and_compute_Cobb_Douglas_)

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[Why is there no substitutability between tasks?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r#Why_is_there_no_substitutability_between_tasks_)

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# [Research note: A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in~2032](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r)

by [Thomas Kwa](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/thomas-kwa?from=post_header)

12th Feb 2026

[Linkpost from metr.org](https://metr.org/notes/2026-02-10-simpler-ai-timelines-model/)

10 min read

[15](https://www.alignmentforum.org/pos

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