Forecasting analysis by Metaculus aggregates
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
Metaculus is a widely-used forecasting aggregation platform that AI safety researchers reference for probabilistic estimates on AI timelines, risk events, and policy outcomes; useful as a calibration and base-rate reference tool.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100tool pagetool
Summary
Metaculus is a collaborative forecasting platform that aggregates probabilistic predictions from a community of forecasters on questions spanning AI, geopolitics, health, climate, and nuclear risks. It provides crowd-sourced probability estimates on future events, serving as a reference for calibrated uncertainty quantification relevant to risk assessment and policy planning.
Key Points
- •Aggregates community forecasts on high-stakes topics including AI development, pandemics, nuclear risks, and geopolitical conflicts with probability estimates
- •Covers AI-relevant questions through a dedicated 'Artificial Intelligence' category and specialized tournaments like FutureEval for AI capability evaluation
- •Provides structured forecasting with key factors, comment threads, and resolution criteria enabling epistemic accountability
- •Used by researchers and policymakers as a reference for calibrated base rates on emerging risks and technological milestones
- •Hosts tournaments and contests (e.g., Bridgewater x Metaculus) incentivizing accurate long-range forecasting on consequential questions
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| International AI Coordination Game Model | Analysis | 59.0 |
Cached Content Preview
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[Feed Home](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/) [💬\\
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Top Comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?weekly_top_comments=true) [📈\\
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Indexes](https://www.metaculus.com/tournaments/indexes/) [🏆\\
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Leaderboards](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/)
Topics
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Bridgewater Contest](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/) [💥\\
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Iran War](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?topic=2026-iran-war&for_main_feed=false) [🦾\\
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FutureEval](https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/) [⚔️\\
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Metaculus Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-spring-2026/) [❓\\
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Top Questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?topic=top-50&for_main_feed=false) [🗞️\\
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Current Events](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/current-events/)
categories
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Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=artificial-intelligence&for_main_feed=false) [🦠\\
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Health & Pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=health-pandemics&for_main_feed=false) [🌱\\
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Environment & Climate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=environment-climate&for_main_feed=false) [☢️\\
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Nuclear Technology & Risks](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=nuclear&for_main_feed=false) [See all categories](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/discovery/)
HotMoversNewIn The News
More
Filter
[**34** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/42746/bridgewater-x-metaculus-forecasting-contest-winners/#comments)
#### Announcing the 2026 Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Winners!
[**2** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42496/will-donald-trump-and-xi-jinping-meet-in-person-before-april-3-2026/#comments)
**93** forecasters
#### Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?
10%chance
72% this week
[**71** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42472/us-iran-ceasefire-before-may-2026/#comments)
**305** forecasters
#### Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?
12.5%chance
12.5% this week
Key Factors
- Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?
- Existential war for Iran's leadership
- Asymmetric denial of the Strait of Hormuz
- Pentagon preparing for prolonged conflict
[**7** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42541/who-will-win-the-2026-f1-drivers-championship/#comments)
**16** forecasters
#### Who will win the 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship?
Charles Leclerc9.3%
Lewis Hamilton9.4%
George Russell54.7%
Kimi Antonelli15.7%
19 others11%
Key Factors
- bbc.co.uk:
Chinese Grand Prix 2026: Kimi Antonelli wins ahead of Russell
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**Horizon Scanning Tournament** \\
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New Tournament\\
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Closes in **10 years**4 forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/horizons/)
[**0** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/42743/respiratory-outlook-march-update/#comments)
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