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Epoch AI: Investigating and Informing the Public About the Trajectory of AI (Manifund Grant)
webThis is a Manifund crowdfunding project page for Epoch AI, a research institute tracking AI development trajectories, benchmarking capabilities, and informing policymakers — relevant to AI governance and safety through empirical research and public communication.
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Summary
Epoch AI is seeking $10M over two years via Manifund to expand its research on AI trajectory, including data tracking of AI systems and hardware, capability benchmarking (e.g., FrontierMath), and economic modeling of AI's automation impacts. The organization serves policymakers, industry leaders, and the public with rigorous, accessible AI research. Funding would grow the team from 23 to 30 full-time employees.
Key Points
- •Epoch AI tracks AI model and hardware development, plans to expand to AI clusters and companies with weekly data insights.
- •Capability measurement initiative includes the AI Benchmarking Hub and novel benchmarks like FrontierMath, developed with 70+ mathematicians.
- •Economic modeling work combines AI scaling laws with growth theory to analyze automation and compute scaling impacts.
- •~75% of current funding comes from Open Philanthropy; seeking diversification through Manifund and other donors.
- •Team grew from 10 to 23 full-time employees in 2024, with publications at NeurIPS and ICLR and citations by government officials.
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Investigating and informing the public about the trajectory of AI | Manifund
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The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20251112023011/https://manifund.org/projects/investigating-and-informing-the-public-about-the-trajectory-of-ai
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Investigating and informing the public about the trajectory of AI
AI governance
Forecasting
Epoch AI
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$5,975raised
$10,000,000funding goal
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Project summary
Epoch AI is a leading research institute that develops public knowledge on AI's trajectory through rigorous research, novel benchmarking, and comprehensive data tracking. We seek general support to expand our work informing policymakers, industry leaders, and society on AI development and its implications. Our unique position combining technical depth with accessible communication has made us a trusted source for stakeholders ranging from government officials to tech leaders.
What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?
Broadly, our mission is to conduct and disseminate rigorous research on the trajectory and impact of artificial intelligence, to enable better policy and decision-making. With additional funding, we aim to expand three key initiatives:
Data Curation: Building on our successful AI model and hardware tracking to cover AI clusters and companies, launching weekly data insights for timely analysis.
Capability Measurement: Growing our AI Benchmarking Hub through independent model evaluations and novel benchmarks like FrontierMath.
Economic Modeling: Developing a framework combining AI scaling laws with growth theory to analyze automation impacts and compute scaling.
We'll achieve these through strategic hiring of technical talent, maintaining our commitment to rigorous analysis, and expanding our successful track record of creating accessible, high-impact content.
How will this funding be used?
We're seeking $10M over two years to scale our impact:
$2M/year for the data program (tracking AI systems, hardware, clusters)
$2M/year for AI benchmarking (capability measurement, new benchmark development)
$6M for team expansion including an AI Data Lead, research engineers, and operations staff
Reaching 30 full-time employees while maintaining project-specific contractor relationships
Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar project
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