CEPI - Disease X: Pandemic Preparedness for Unknown Pathogens

Disease X 
 
 
 
 
 What is Disease X?

 Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious epidemic or pandemic could be caused by a novel or as-of-yet unidentified pathogen. 

 In February 2018, Disease X was included in the WHO R&D Blueprint list of priority diseases. COVID-19 represented the first Disease X since the term was coined in 2018 and it resulted in a humanitarian and economic global crisis. 

 The number of new emerging infectious diseases is on the rise, and as the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated, infectious diseases do not respect borders so we need to be prepared on a global scale to respond to future outbreaks.

 Can we predict the next Disease X?

 By its very nature, we cannot predict what Disease X will be or where it is likely to occur. However, we can narrow our focus. 

 We know that the viruses that put humanity at greatest risk come from 25 or so virus families. Armed with knowledge about these viral families, combining our global resources, and harnessing the latest advances in vaccine science, the world can better prepare for the next Disease X. 

 Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), for example, have made it possible to quickly and effectively model viral mutations and derive vaccine targets based on these predictions. 

 To accelerate the application of these AI tools for epidemic and pandemic preparedness, CEPI has established a number of partnerships to estimate the ability of a novel viral variant to escape immunity , rank viral families according to epidemic or pandemic risk, and generate state-of-the-art immunogen designs to speed up development of future vaccines against novel viral threats.

 In August 2024 , CEPI and WHO emphasized the importance of expanding research to encompass entire families of pathogens that can infect humans as well as focusing on individual pathogens. Pushing forward a broader-based approach can help enhance the world's preparedness for a future Disease X.

 Read more about The Viral Most Wanted Arrow Preparing for Disease X 

 The threat of Disease X has been at the top of CEPI’s priority list since its formation in 2017. It was this focus that enabled CEPI to respond so quickly to COVID-19. 

 CEPI had previously invested in rapid-response platform technologies capable of producing vaccines against unknown pathogens, and it had also identified coronaviruses as serious pathogenic threats. It was able to quickly pivot these projects to address the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, announcing its first vaccine development partnerships in January 2020 when only a few hundred cases of the novel virus had been confirmed.

 A vaccine against COVID-19 started being rolled out after just 326 days, but to prevent future outbreaks from realising their pandemic potential, the world needs to up the pace in the race against new and re-emerging viruses. 

 If it took just 100 days to make a safe and effective vaccine against any viral pandemic threat, we could co

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