Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era: Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies
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This RAND report examines how the U.S. should develop a comprehensive national strategy for the AI era, including AGI/ASI scenarios, drawing lessons from six archetypal strategies. It is relevant to AI safety as it addresses governance frameworks and geopolitical implications of transformative AI.
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Summary
This RAND Expert Insights report by Mazarr and Agachi argues that existing U.S. AI policy efforts, including the Trump administration's 2025 AI Action Plan, fall short of a comprehensive national strategy for the AI era. The authors survey existing AI strategy documents, identify major strategic challenges, and propose six archetypal strategies to guide U.S. thinking. They conclude with 'no-regret' foundational steps for policymakers.
Key Points
- •The U.S. lacks a comprehensive national strategy for the AI era, beyond technology-focused plans like the 2025 AI Action Plan.
- •AI will become a significant geopolitical sorting mechanism, though its full impact may take longer than enthusiasts predict.
- •The report surveys existing AI strategy documents and identifies major challenges in developing a holistic U.S. AI strategy.
- •Six archetypal strategies are proposed to advance comprehensive U.S. strategic thinking about AI, including AGI and ASI scenarios.
- •The authors identify 'no-regret' steps that can serve as an initial foundation for a national AI strategy.
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PE-A4297-1
Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era
Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies
Michael J. Mazarr, Anca Agachi
Expert InsightsPublished Nov 17, 2025
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The United States is on the cusp of a transformative techno-industrial transition: an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution. Although the ultimate shape of the transition remains uncertain, it will become a potent new sorting mechanism in geopolitics. This effect may take more time to emerge than some AI enthusiasts claim. However, the full application of AI to thousands of business, government, education, military, and other tasks offers the potential for significant increases in productivity, growth, efficiency, and, ultimately, national power.
In July 2025, the Trump administration issued its AI Action Plan, which includes a wi
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