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IMF Economic Outlook
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4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: International Monetary Fund
A macroeconomic reference useful for understanding the broader economic environment in which AI development and governance decisions are being made; tangentially relevant to AI safety policy discussions.
Metadata
Importance: 22/100organizational reportreference
Summary
The IMF's April 2024 World Economic Outlook provides a comprehensive assessment of global economic conditions, growth projections, and key risks including inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and the economic implications of AI and technological change. It serves as a major reference point for understanding macroeconomic trends relevant to AI deployment and governance discussions.
Key Points
- •Projects global growth at 3.2% for 2024-2025, with gradual disinflation allowing monetary policy normalization in advanced economies.
- •Highlights AI as a significant structural factor with potential to reshape labor markets and productivity, raising governance and distributional concerns.
- •Identifies geopolitical fragmentation and geoeconomic tensions as growing risks to global trade and economic stability.
- •Warns of fiscal pressures in many economies, limiting capacity to respond to future shocks or fund large-scale AI governance initiatives.
- •Emphasizes the need for international policy coordination to manage cross-border economic risks, including those from emerging technologies.
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World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence Loading component...
World Economic Outlook
Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence
April 2024
Projections Table
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English العربية 中文 русский français español 日本語 Global recovery is steady but slow and differs by region
The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.
The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Chapter 2 explains that changes in mortgage and housing markets over the prepandemic decade of low interest rates moderated the near-term impact of policy rate hikes. Chapter 3 focuses on medium-term prospects and shows that the lower predicted growth in output per person stems, notably, from persistent structural frictions preventing capital and labor from moving to productive firms. Chapter 4 further indicates how dimmer prospects for growth in China and other large emerging market economies will weigh on trading partners.
Full Report
Executive Summary
Foreword
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April 2024 Database
Blog by IMF's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
✕ Projections Table
Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23. As global inflation descended from its mid-2022 peak, economic activity grew steadily, defying warnings of stagflation and global recession. However, the pace of expansion is expected to be low by historical standards and the speed of convergence toward higher living-standards for middle- and lower-income countries has slowed, implying persistent global disparities. With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global
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