Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Economic Research - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 





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 A Closer Look at Emerging Market Resilience During Recent Shocks 
 

 
 Consumers' Inflation Expectations Up at Short-Term Horizon 
 

 
 The Fed Has Two Tools to Influence Money Market Conditions 
 

 
 Treasury Market Liquidity Since April 2025 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 Liberty Street Economics
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 Behind the ATM: Exploring the Structure of Bank Holding Companies 
 
 
 Many modern banking organizations are highly complex. A “bank” is often a larger structure made up of distinct entities, each subject to different regulatory, supervisory, and reporting requirements. The authors illustrate what modern bank holding companies look like in practice, document how banks’ organizational structures have changed over time, and explain why these details matter for conducting accurate analyses of the financial system. 
 
 
 By Lily Gordon and Lee Seltzer
 
 
 
 
 
 Sports Betting Is Everywhere, Especially on Credit Reports 
 
 
 The authors examine how legalized sports betting affects household financial health by comparing betting activity and consumer credit outcomes between states that legalized it to those that have not. Their findings include that legalization increases spending at online sportsbooks roughly tenfold, including a roughly 15 percent increase in nearby areas where betting is not legal. They also find that consumer financial health suffers, with rising delinquencies in participating states and spillover effects across state lines. 
 
 
 By Jacob Goss and Daniel Mangrum
 
 
 
 
 
 China’s Electric Trade 
 
 
 China has spent considerable resources to develop advanced electric technology industries such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels. These efforts have influenced international trade, as improvements in price and quality have increased the global demand for these goods. The author demonstrates how passenger cars and batteries have been disproportionately large contributors to the rise in the country’s trade surplus in recent years, while falling prices have pulled down solar panel export revenues despite higher volumes. 
 
 
 By Thomas Klitgaard
 
 
 
 
 
 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— March 2026 
 
 
 The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They describe their forecast and its change since December 2025.  
 
 
 Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
 
 
 
 
 
 Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth? 
 
 
 Employer-sponsored health insurance costs have climbed by about 25 percent over the past

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