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Cold Takes – Holden Karnofsky's Blog

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Credibility Rating

3/5
Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Cold Takes

Influential blog by an Open Philanthropy co-CEO; the 'Most Important Century' series is widely read in the AI safety community and provides strategic framing for why AI safety work is urgent.

Metadata

Importance: 62/100blog posthomepage

Summary

Cold Takes is Holden Karnofsky's (co-CEO of Open Philanthropy) personal blog exploring big-picture questions about AI, existential risk, effective altruism, and how to think about the most important challenges of our time. It features in-depth essays on AI timelines, transformative AI scenarios, and philanthropic strategy. The blog is notable for its 'Most Important Century' series arguing that we may be living at a uniquely pivotal moment in history.

Key Points

  • Hosts the influential 'Most Important Century' series arguing current decades may be uniquely pivotal for humanity's long-term future.
  • Covers AI timelines, transformative AI risk, and the implications of advanced AI from a longtermist perspective.
  • Written by Holden Karnofsky, co-CEO of Open Philanthropy, a major funder of AI safety research.
  • Explores how individuals and philanthropists should prioritize actions given uncertainty about AI development trajectories.
  • Bridges technical AI safety concerns with broader existential risk, policy, and effective altruism considerations.

Cited by 2 pages

PageTypeQuality
Holden KarnofskyPerson40.0
Sharp Left TurnRisk69.0

Cached Content Preview

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 Subscribe (free) 

 
 
 Cold Takes

 

 For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
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 Latest post: Good job opportunities for helping with the most important century 

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 Featured posts

 
 
 
 
 
 What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

 
 
 
 Jobs that can help with the most important century

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Spreading messages to help with the most important century

 
 
 
 
 
 
 How we could stumble into AI catastrophe

 
 
 
 Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem

 
 
 
 
 
 
 High-level hopes for AI alignment

 
 
 
 
 
 
 AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Nonprofit Boards are Weird

 
 
 
 
 
 
 AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Useful Vices for Wicked Problems

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 The Wicked Problem Experience

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Learning By Writing

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Future-proof ethics

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Where's Today's Beethoven?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Visualizing Utopia

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Minimal-trust investigations

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Rowing, Steering, Anchoring, Equity, Mutiny

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Was life better in hunter-gatherer times?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Pre-agriculture gender relations seem bad

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Has Life Gotten Better?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning

 
 
 
 One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”

 
 
 
 
 
 
 AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Give Sports a Chance

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Why talk about 10,000 years from now?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 This Can't Go On

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles

 
 
 
 
 
 
 All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

 
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 How major governments can help with the most important century

 
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