Kalshi AI Regulation Market 2027

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[Politics](https://kalshi.com/category/politics/all)

# Will AI regulation become law this year?

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$24,068 vol

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Order book

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## Rules summary

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from [Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/).

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.

The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products. An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

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Timeline and payout

Market openDec 29, 2025 · 10:00am EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout1 hour after closing

If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59pm EST.

SeriesKXAILEGISLATION

EventKXAILEGISLATION-27

MarketKXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01

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Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

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## About

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted U.S. regulatory authorities to seek effective means to govern this technology. While current AI regulation is fragmented across federal, state, and industry levels, new legislative measures and executiv

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