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Good Judgment Inc. Forecasts on US Foreign Aid Funding - GiveWell
webTangentially relevant to AI safety knowledge bases; demonstrates applied forecasting methodology in a policy/governance context, which has methodological parallels to AI risk forecasting and geopolitical uncertainty modeling used in existential risk research.
Metadata
Importance: 28/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
GiveWell commissioned Good Judgment Inc. to produce superforecaster probability estimates regarding the future of US foreign aid funding, likely in response to policy uncertainty under the Trump administration in early 2025. These forecasts inform GiveWell's grant-making decisions and help quantify risks to global health and development funding pipelines.
Key Points
- •GiveWell contracted professional superforecasters from Good Judgment Inc. to assess probabilities around US foreign aid funding outcomes.
- •The forecasts were produced in March 2025, amid significant uncertainty about USAID and US foreign assistance budgets under the new administration.
- •Results likely inform GiveWell's own funding strategy and recommendations to donors during a period of high geopolitical and policy volatility.
- •Use of superforecasting reflects an evidence-based, probabilistic approach to navigating uncertainty in charitable giving decisions.
- •This represents an application of forecasting tools to real-world philanthropic risk management rather than AI safety directly.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Good Judgment Inc. — Forecasts on U.S. Foreign Aid Funding (March 2025) | GiveWell
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Table of Contents
In a nutshell
Background
The organization
What we think this funding will do
The case for the funding
Risks and reservations
Plans for follow up
Internal forecasts
Our process
Sources
Table of Contents
1) In a nutshell
2) Background
3) The organization
4) What we think this funding will do
5) The case for the funding
6) Risks and reservations
7) Plans for follow up
8) Internal forecasts
9) Our process
10) Sources
Note: This page summarizes the rationale behind a GiveWell agreement with Good Judgment Inc. Good Judgment Inc. staff reviewed this page prior to publication.
In a nutshell
In March 2025, GiveWell paid Good Judgment Inc. (GJI) $72,000 to provide forecasts about future U.S. government foreign aid funding levels, particularly for global health programs.
We're providing this funding because:
The forecasts could help inform our grantmaking strategy given the changing U.S. funding situation.
We view GJI's superforecasters as uniquely positioned to make well-calibrated predictions about complex policy questions.
We think making the forecasts public could benefit others in the field.
Our main reservations are:
The current political environment may make historical patterns less reliable for prediction.
The gap between appropriated amounts and actual spending could be significant in the current political environment, making forecasting more challenging.
GiveWell is providing 50% of the funding ($72,000), with Open Philanthropy providing the remaining 50%.
GJI has already provided us with the forecasts, along with the reasoning underlying them. All forecasts can be found on their website here .
Note: This spending is structured as a service contract, not a grant. This means it is funded through our unrestricted funding, not via donations made to our All Grants Fund or Top Charities Fund. We have commissioned work like this throughout our history and will continue to do so for our own learning. We don’t always publish about service contracts. In this case, we think it is of particular value for the public to know about this spending.
Published: May 2025
Background
Understanding future funding levels for global health and development programs is important for GiveWell's grantmaking decisions. If we anticipate that funding for co
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