NunoSempere - EA Forum

NunoSempere - EA Forum 
 
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 Director, Head of Foresight @ Sentinel 13839 karma Joined Nov 2018 nunosempere.com/blog Message Get notified Bio

 I run Sentinel , a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here . I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable .  I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell , but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes :

 Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

 I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

 I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking. 
 The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend )
 The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own. 
 But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value .

 My career has been as follows:

 Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out. 
 I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org , a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news . I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship , and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated. 
 I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I

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