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Arb Research Work Portfolio

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Arb Research is a small independent consultancy producing applied research for the AI safety and EA communities; this page catalogs their project portfolio and is useful for understanding the landscape of commissioned safety-relevant research.

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Summary

Arb Research is an independent research organization focused on quantitative and analytical work relevant to AI safety, forecasting, and effective altruism. Their portfolio showcases projects spanning AI risk evaluation, policy analysis, and evidence-based research. The work portfolio page provides an overview of completed and ongoing projects for potential clients and collaborators.

Key Points

  • Arb Research produces quantitative, evidence-based analysis on AI safety and related topics for EA-aligned organizations
  • Portfolio includes forecasting, policy analysis, and technical evaluations relevant to AI governance and safety
  • Works as a contractor/consultancy providing research services to organizations in the AI safety ecosystem
  • Projects span a range of topics including risk assessment, talent pipelines, and institutional analysis
  • Serves as a reference point for understanding what kinds of applied research are being commissioned in the AI safety space

Cited by 2 pages

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HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 202640 KB
Arb Research 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Arb news
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 Pathways to Progress appearance
 
 
 
 March 2026 
 
 
 

 Author : Gavin
 

 
 
 
 Gavin did a Q&A with the Pathways to Progress reading group. Writeup making him sound coherent here .

 
 PTP: There seems to be a strong narrative about AI coming from the people building these systems—many of whom have clear stakes in their success. At the same time, anecdotally, there also appears to be significant resistance among ordinary people. For example, at a high school I’m familiar with, it is socially uncool to use AI. In computer science classes, students who rely on AI to generate code are looked down upon. It feels like there is a real cultural tension. I was not around for earlier technological transitions, but it is hard to imagine high school students reacting this way to personal computers or smartphones. Is this backlash unique to AI? What explains it? 

 
 
 First, skepticism is not limited to the general public. Many academics, even in 2026, remain unconvinced. In part, this may reflect early experiences: people tried the models two years ago, found them unimpressive, and have not revisited them since. Rapid progress means that impressions can quickly become outdated.

 
 
 Among young people, there is also a cultural element. I teach teenagers, and perhaps 15 to 20 percent take pride in writing everything by hand. Whether or not they believe AI systems are capable, they see reliance on them as socially undesirable. That reaction is not surprising; new tools often clash with identity and norms, especially when the norms are associated with older generations or corporate culture.

 
 
 More broadly, backlash to AI is not historically unusual. Throughout the history of technology, people have resisted adoption. Electric light had to compete with gas lighting. Trains had to overcome public fear. Major innovations routinely require persuasion, marketing, and social normalization. Resistance is a standard human response to large-scale change.

 
 
 At the same time, AI appears to be one of the fastest-adopted technologies in history, likely even faster than smartphones. There is also evidence that usage is underreported. For example, workplace studies have shown that when people are asked whether their coworkers use AI—rather than whether they themselves do—reported usage rises significantly. One Microsoft study suggested that roughly half of workplace AI use was undisclosed at the time.

 
 
 Regarding backlash, it is entirely possible for AI to be both the fastest-adopted technology in history and the subject of a highly organized counter-movement. There are numerous reasons people might oppose it: concerns about plagiarism, job displacement, aesthetic degradation of creative work, erosion of small online communities, misinformation, and increasing centralization of economic power. In extreme scenarios, critics wor

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