Epoch AI, "Frontier LLM training runs can't get much longer" (https://epoch.ai/data-insights/longest-training-run)

Frontier LLM training runs can’t get much longer | Epoch AI 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
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 Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman (2025), "Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027". Published online at epoch.ai. Retrieved from: 'https://epoch.ai/data-insights/longest-training-run' [online resource] 
 
 
 
 

 
 BibTeX citation

 

 
 @misc{epoch2025longesttrainingrun,
 title={Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027},
 author={Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman},
 year={2025},
 url={https://epoch.ai/data-insights/longest-training-run},
 note={Accessed: }
 } 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 
 Data Insight 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027
 
 
 

 Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027

 

 In “ The Longest Training Run ”, we argue that training runs that last too long are outclassed by training runs that start later and benefit from additional hardware and algorithmic improvements . Based on our latest numbers, this suggests that training runs lasting more than 9 months may be inefficient. At the current pace, training runs will reach this size around 2027 (90% CI: Aug 2025 to Sept 2029).

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

 

 
 

 

 
 
 
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 Longer training runs are a significant driver of the rapid growth seen in training compute . If training time stops increasing, training compute growth will slow – unless developers ramp up hardware scaling even faster. This could be achieved by speeding up the build-out of larger clusters, or by spreading training across multiple cluste

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