The Real AI Race: America Needs More Than Innovation to Compete With China

The Real AI Race: America Needs More Than Innovation to Compete With China Skip to content New Issue Out

 March/April 2026 

 Read Now The Real AI Race

 America Needs More Than Innovation to Compete With China

 Colin H. Kahl and Jim Mitre 

 July 9, 2025 Taking a photo of an AI data sign in Taipei, Taiwan, June 2024 Ann Wang / Reuters COLIN H. KAHL is Steven C. Hazy Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and a Senior Adviser at RAND.

 JIM MITRE is Vice President and Director of RAND Global and Emerging Risks.

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 America Needs More Than Innovation to Compete With China 

 Colin H. Kahl and Jim Mitre 

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 Copy Link Copied Article link: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-real-artificial-intelligence-race-innovation https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-real-artificial-intelligence-race-innovation Copy 
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 Discussions in Washington about artificial intelligence increasingly turn to how the United States can win the AI race with China. One of President Donald Trump’s first acts on returning to office was to sign an executive order declaring the need to “sustain and enhance America’s global AI dominance.” At the Paris AI Action Summit in February, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the administration’s commitment to ensuring that “American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide.” And in May, David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto czar, cited the need “to win the AI race” to justify exporting advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

 Given the prospect that AI could transform the power and prosperity of nations in the decades to come, it is better to win the race than lose it. But determining who is ahead depends on what it means to win. A common definition is being the first to cross the threshold of artificial general intelligence, which in basic terms is an AI model that is as smart or smarter than the top human experts across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI could unlock extraordinary breakthroughs in science, technology, and economic productivity—and the first country to develop it could reap disproportionate benefits.

 But the race to AGI is not the only critical race in the AI contest. Militaries and intelligence agencies must

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