RAND Global and Emerging Risks
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High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
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RAND's Global and Emerging Risks division conducts policy research on catastrophic risks including AI, synthetic biology, climate, and China-related geopolitical threats, making it a key institutional actor in AI governance and existential risk policy.
Metadata
Summary
RAND Global and Emerging Risks is a research division focused on the most consequential threats to civilization and global security, with particular emphasis on artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, climate change, and U.S.-China competition. It produces rigorous policy research and is supported by prominent effective altruism-aligned philanthropists and foundations. Key research areas include AGI forecasting, AI market competition, and emerging technology governance.
Key Points
- •Focuses on catastrophic and existential risks including AI, synthetic biology, and climate change with a policy research orientation.
- •Houses the Center on AI, Security, and Technology (CAST) which researches transformative technologies to shape global security policy.
- •Produces research on U.S.-China AI competition, including LLM market dynamics and implications of models like DeepSeek R1.
- •Funded by EA-aligned donors including Jaan Tallinn, Good Ventures, Founders Pledge, and Longview, signaling alignment with longtermist priorities.
- •Conducts AGI forecasting and scenario analysis, directly relevant to AI safety timelines and policy preparation.
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Global and Emerging Risks
RAND Global and Emerging Risks
RAND Global and Emerging Risks delivers rigorous and objective public policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security.
Novel methods on consequential problems
Understanding China
A better understanding of China is the gateway to better strategy and policy. RAND seeks to improve U.S., ally, and partner policymakers and their publics’ understanding of China to support competition without catastrophe.
Emerging Technologies
Emerging technologies hold significant promise while also posing uncertain risks. Global and Emerging Risks is examining potential catastrophic threats to humanity as well as the geopolitical implications of these technologies. Particular focus is given to artificial intelligence and synthetic biology due to their rapid development and diverse applications.
Climate and Energy
RAND is reimagining how we pursue the next era of climate policy research. We are studying emerging risks associated with the changing climate, society’s responses to those risks, and the processes and conditions needed for policy implementation.
Philanthropic Supporters
RAND Global and Emerging Risks is grateful for the generous philanthropic support that enables its important work.
Work with Us
The Audacious Project
Charlottes och Fredriks Stiftelse
Chris Anderson and Jacqueline Novogratz
Coefficient Giving
DALHAP Investments Ltd.
Effektiv Spenden
Ergo Impact
Fathom
Founders Pledge
Good Ventures
Jaan Tallinn
The Li Lu Humanitarian Foundation
Longview
Michael Tang
The Pew Charitable Trusts
RAND Global and Emerging Risks Advisory Board
Sea Grape Foundation
Valhalla Foundation
Waking Up Foundation
Featured Research & Commentary
Research
U.S.-China Competition for AI Markets
U.S.-based large language models continue to dominate in terms of global use, likely because of a first-mover advantage and superior model capabilities. But that dominance should not be taken for
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