The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security
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A RAND/Perry World House edited volume examining how the US-China AGI race may reshape international security, nuclear stability, and governance, directly relevant to AI safety through its focus on catastrophic risks and novel governance frameworks for advanced AI.
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Summary
This RAND report compiles expert analyses on the geopolitical and security implications of the AGI race, particularly between the US and China. It examines whether the greatest risks arise during the pre-AGI transition period or from the competitive race itself, and whether AGI will alter nuclear balances or democratize destructive capabilities. The authors propose novel governance models, including an 'AI cartel' framework, to manage military versus civilian AGI applications.
Key Points
- •The US-China AGI race is expected to intensify amid broader strategic competition, raising urgent international security concerns.
- •Key debate: whether greatest risks stem from the ambiguous pre-AGI period or from the rapid competitive race dynamics itself.
- •AGI may fundamentally alter nuclear deterrence or primarily democratize access to destructive capabilities—both scenarios pose serious risks.
- •Traditional arms control frameworks are deemed ill-suited for AGI; novel models like an 'AI cartel' distinguishing military from civilian use are proposed.
- •Strategic dilemmas of speed vs. caution, perception vs. reality, and competition vs. collusion require deliberate policy choices.
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PE-A4155-1
The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security
Edited by Jim Mitre, Michael C. Horowitz, Natalia Henry, Emma Borden, Joel B. Predd
Contributors: Sarah Kreps, Miles Brundage, James D. Fearon, Karl P. Mueller, Jane Vaynman, Tristan A. Volpe
Expert InsightsPublished Sep 24, 2025
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As humanity approaches the technological capacity to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), the race between leading artificial intelligence (AI) powers—particularly the United States and China—is likely to intensify amid broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania and the RAND Geopolitics of AGI Initiative commissioned papers by experts in AI, international relations, and national security to examine the dynamics of the AGI race and its potential implications for international security and stabilit
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