Good Judgment Open - Forecasting Platform
webGood Judgment Open applies superforecasting methodology to public questions; useful for AI safety researchers interested in forecasting AI timelines or policy outcomes with calibrated probabilities.
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Summary
Good Judgment Open is a public forecasting platform where participants make probabilistic predictions on geopolitical, economic, and other real-world questions. It applies the superforecasting methodology developed from IARPA's research, aggregating crowd wisdom to produce well-calibrated probability estimates. The platform is relevant to AI safety for its work on forecasting AI-related developments and demonstrating structured uncertainty quantification.
Key Points
- •Public platform for probabilistic forecasting on real-world questions using superforecasting methodology
- •Aggregates predictions from large crowds to produce calibrated probability estimates on uncertain outcomes
- •Relevant to AI safety as a tool for forecasting AI capabilities timelines and policy developments
- •Based on research showing that structured forecasting with feedback significantly improves prediction accuracy
- •Used by researchers and analysts to track and quantify uncertainty around emerging technology risks
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI-Human Hybrid Systems | Approach | 91.0 |
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