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# When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Apr 2033

20202079

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Top Key Factors

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↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals

Impact

later

Strength

8 votes

AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)

Impact

Earlier

Strength

14 votes

China starts a war with Taiwan

Impact

Earlier

Strength

83 votes

Strong regulation of AI companies by US government

Impact

Earlier

Strength

50 votes

↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes

Impact

Earlier

Strength

5 votes

AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing

Impact

later

Strength

0 vote

Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)

Impact

later

Strength

8 votes

Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047)

Impact

later

Strength

6 votes

CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info

Timeline

1d1w2mall

Sep 2031Sep 2037Sep 2043Oct 2049Sep 2031Sep 2037Sep 2043Oct 2049

Dec 27Dec 29Dec 31Jan 02Jan 04Jan 06Jan 08Jan 10Jan 12Jan 14Jan 16Jan 18Jan 20Jan 22Jan 24Jan 26Jan 28Jan 30Feb 01Feb 03Feb 05Feb 07Feb 09Feb 11Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 21Feb 23Feb 25Apr 2033

Resolution Criteria

We will thus define "an AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.

- Able to reliably pass a 2-hour, adversarial Turing test during which the participants can send text, images, and audio files (as is done in ordinary text messaging applications) during the course of their conversation. An 'adversarial' Turing test is one in which the human judges are instructed to ask interesting and difficult questions, designed to advantage human participants, and to successfully unmask the computer as an impostor. A single demonstration of an AI passing such a Turing test, or one that is sufficiently similar, will be sufficient for this condition, so long as the test is well-designed to the estimation of Metaculus Admins.
- Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators and when given human-readable instructions, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2021 Ferrari 312 T4 1:8 scale automobile model](https://web.archive.org/web/20250109024142/https://www.deagostini.com/uk/assembly-guides/). A single demonstration of this ability, or a sufficiently similar demonstration, will be considered sufficient.
- High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q\\&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).
- Able to get top-1 strict accuracy o

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