Sacra: Kalshi Analysis
reportRelevant to AI safety discussions around prediction markets as forecasting and coordination tools; Kalshi's regulatory success may influence how AI-related prediction markets develop in the U.S.
Metadata
Importance: 28/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
Sacra provides a business analysis of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange that saw 994% revenue growth in 2025 to $260M, with $22.88B in trading volume. The platform operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange allowing binary Yes/No contracts on real-world events, distinguishing itself from sportsbooks by acting as a marketplace rather than odds-setter. Its rapid growth and $11B valuation signal mainstream legitimacy for prediction markets as information aggregation tools.
Key Points
- •Kalshi generated $260M in revenue in 2025 (up 994% YoY) with $22.88B in trading volume, indicating rapid mainstream adoption of prediction markets.
- •The platform takes a ~1.2% transaction fee on trades rather than setting odds, operating as a neutral marketplace similar to a financial exchange.
- •Raised $1B in November 2025 at an $11B valuation (total funding $1.7B), signaling strong investor confidence in regulated prediction markets.
- •Achieved ~3% U.S. sports betting market share during peak NFL season, competing directly with established sportsbooks.
- •CFTC regulation distinguishes Kalshi from unregulated prediction markets like Polymarket, potentially enabling broader institutional and policy use cases.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (Prediction Market) | Organization | 25.0 |
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Kalshi revenue, valuation & funding | Sacra
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Kalshi
Kalshi
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Marketplace for trading on the outcomes of real-world events
#prediction-markets
Revenue
$260.00M
2025
Valuation
$11.00B
2025
Funding
$1.71B
2025
Growth Rate (y/y)
1,221%
2024
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Details
Headquarters
New York, NY
CEO
Tarek Mansour
Website
kalshi.com
Milestones
FOUNDING YEAR
2018
Listed In
#prediction-markets
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Revenue
Sacra estimates that Kalshi generated $260M in revenue in 2025, up 994% year-over-year from $24M in 2024. The company processed $22.88B in trading volume in 2025, with fees representing ~1.2% of total volume.
Sports accounted for 89% of Kalshi 's 2025 fee revenue at $235M, with the sports share exceeding 90% in the final four months of the year. The company's explosive growth was driven by NFL season, with September-November generating $138M in sports fee revenue alone. December 2025 was Kalshi 's strongest month with $63.5M in fee revenue, and the final week of the year hit $20M—more than the first four months of 2025 combined.
Kalshi 's market share in U.S. sports betting grew from roughly 1.5% for 2025 overall to nearly 3% during September-November, positioning it approximately seventh among U.S. sports betting operators behind FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics , Caesars, and Bet365.
Parlays, launched in September 2025, generated $947.8M in volume but only $3.7M in fees— about 2% of Q4 fee revenue com
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