Skip to content
Longterm Wiki
Back

Sacra: Kalshi Analysis

report

Relevant to AI safety discussions around prediction markets as forecasting and coordination tools; Kalshi's regulatory success may influence how AI-related prediction markets develop in the U.S.

Metadata

Importance: 28/100organizational reportanalysis

Summary

Sacra provides a business analysis of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange that saw 994% revenue growth in 2025 to $260M, with $22.88B in trading volume. The platform operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange allowing binary Yes/No contracts on real-world events, distinguishing itself from sportsbooks by acting as a marketplace rather than odds-setter. Its rapid growth and $11B valuation signal mainstream legitimacy for prediction markets as information aggregation tools.

Key Points

  • Kalshi generated $260M in revenue in 2025 (up 994% YoY) with $22.88B in trading volume, indicating rapid mainstream adoption of prediction markets.
  • The platform takes a ~1.2% transaction fee on trades rather than setting odds, operating as a neutral marketplace similar to a financial exchange.
  • Raised $1B in November 2025 at an $11B valuation (total funding $1.7B), signaling strong investor confidence in regulated prediction markets.
  • Achieved ~3% U.S. sports betting market share during peak NFL season, competing directly with established sportsbooks.
  • CFTC regulation distinguishes Kalshi from unregulated prediction markets like Polymarket, potentially enabling broader institutional and policy use cases.

Cited by 1 page

PageTypeQuality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)Organization25.0

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 202621 KB
-->

 
 

 

 
 Kalshi revenue, valuation & funding | Sacra 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Your Feed 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 Workspace 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Charts
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Highlights
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Questions
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 API
 
 
 
 
 
 -->
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Explore 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Companies 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Categories 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Reports 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 Community 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Ask a question 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Get access to all our reports for $50/mo
 
 
 
 Read about the latest in the private markets and join a growing community.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Valuation Model 
 

 
 
 
 
 Expert Interviews 
 

 
 
 
 
 Founders, funding 
 

 
 
 Get Access 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Home 
 
 &nbsp>&nbsp 
 
 Companies 
 
 &nbsp>&nbsp 
 Kalshi 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Kalshi 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 Follow 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Marketplace for trading on the outcomes of real-world events 
 
 
 
 
 
 #prediction-markets 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Revenue
 

 $260.00M

 2025

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Valuation
 

 $11.00B

 2025

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Funding
 

 $1.71B

 2025

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Growth Rate (y/y)
 

 1,221%

 2024

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 View PDF 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Embed PDF 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 View Model 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 Details 
 
 
 
 Headquarters
 
 
 New York, NY
 
 
 
 
 
 CEO
 
 
 Tarek Mansour 
 
 
 
 
 
 Website
 
 
 
 kalshi.com 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 Milestones 
 
 
 
 FOUNDING YEAR
 
 
 2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 Listed In 
 
 
 
 #prediction-markets 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Overview
 
 
 Reports
 
 
 Filings
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Highlight
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Unhighlight
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Revenue

 

 Sacra estimates that Kalshi generated $260M in revenue in 2025, up 994% year-over-year from $24M in 2024. The company processed $22.88B in trading volume in 2025, with fees representing ~1.2% of total volume.

 Sports accounted for 89% of Kalshi 's 2025 fee revenue at $235M, with the sports share exceeding 90% in the final four months of the year. The company's explosive growth was driven by NFL season, with September-November generating $138M in sports fee revenue alone. December 2025 was Kalshi 's strongest month with $63.5M in fee revenue, and the final week of the year hit $20M—more than the first four months of 2025 combined.

 Kalshi 's market share in U.S. sports betting grew from roughly 1.5% for 2025 overall to nearly 3% during September-November, positioning it approximately seventh among U.S. sports betting operators behind FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics , Caesars, and Bet365.

 Parlays, launched in September 2025, generated $947.8M in volume but only $3.7M in fees— about 2% of Q4 fee revenue com

... (truncated, 21 KB total)
Resource ID: bc5be25ff7d6a67d | Stable ID: sid_cogSfc74Ba