Kalshi - Company About Page

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Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform sometimes referenced in AI safety circles as a tool for aggregating forecasts on AI timelines, policy outcomes, and risk events; its primary focus is financial trading rather than AI safety directly.

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Summary

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. The page outlines the company's mission, founding team, and regulatory status as a CFTC-designated contract market. Kalshi is relevant to AI safety discussions as a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating probabilistic forecasts.

Key Points

•Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, operating under CFTC oversight.
•The platform enables trading on real-world event outcomes, providing market-based probability estimates.
•Prediction markets like Kalshi are relevant to AI safety as tools for forecasting AI timelines and risks.
•Founded with a mission to democratize access to event-based financial instruments.
•Can serve as a coordination and information-aggregation mechanism for assessing AI-related risks and developments.

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# About Kalshi

Kalshi is the first [CFTC regulated](https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/index.htm) exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events. From [inflation](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/inflation), to [fed rates](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/interest-rates), to [unemployment](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/employment), to will the [government shut down](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxshutdownby/shutdown-by), Kalshi allows people to trade on a broad range of topics. We’ve developed a new asset class, event contracts, where you can buy [Yes or No positions](https://help.kalshi.com/trading/buying-yes-vs-selling-no) with respect to whether an event will happen or not. Kalshi’s vision is to allow people to capitalize on their opinions, trade in the domain of every day, and hedge risks that relate to them.

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## Event Contracts

Kalshi’s Event Contracts give people the ability to trade based on their opinions about a specific [yes-or-no question](https://kalshi.com/blog/article/glossary-predictionmarket). For example, if you have student debt and are worried about relief not passing, you can purchase a contract and get a payout even if it doesn’t pass. If you’re worried about the economic fallout of the [government shutting down](https://kalshi.com/events/economics), you can place a trade to hedge against it. If you’ve developed a model on [inflation](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/inflation), you can profit from that….and maybe even offset your rising costs.

Event Contracts have an interesting side effect - the price that a given event contract trades at is actually the market’s assessment of the probability that the event will happen. Our inflation and [federal rate](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/interest-rates) forecasts have been more accurate than economists, pundits, and traditional news outlets over the past year.

We offer Event Contracts on a wide range of topics, including [economics](https://kalshi.com/events/economics), [culture](https://kalshi.com/events/culture), [weather](https://kalshi.com/events/climate), [scientific advancements](https://kalshi.com/events/science), and traditional financial markets such as [commodities](https://kalshi.com/events/economics/oil-and-energy), [forex](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxargdollar/argentina-dollarizes-its-economy), [S&P](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu/sp-500-abovebelow), and [NASDAQ](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnasdaq100/nasdaq-range) indices.

[Learn about Event Contracts](https://help.kalshi.com/)

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## Company History

Founding and Inspiration (2018)
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who met while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). During their early careers at financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and Bridgewater,

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