GiveWell Grant to AMF for LLIN Campaigns in PMI-Supported States in Nigeria (January 2022)

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This resource documents a GiveWell grant recommendation for malaria net distribution in Nigeria. It is not directly related to AI safety but may appear in an AI safety knowledge base as an example of effective altruism funding decisions and cost-effectiveness analysis methodologies used by EA-aligned organizations.

Metadata

Importance: 8/100organizational reportanalysis

Summary

GiveWell recommended an $8.2 million grant to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) in January 2022 to purchase long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) for 2023 campaigns in three Nigerian states. The grant addresses a funding gap left by the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), which lacks sufficient funds to run campaigns every three years. GiveWell assessed the grant as highly cost-effective with low risk of crowding out other funders.

Key Points

•$8.2M grant to AMF: $4.8M from EA Funds and $3.4M from GiveWell's Top Charities Fund to purchase LLINs for Benue, Plateau, and Zamfara states.
•PMI has insufficient funding to support LLIN campaigns in all 11 supported Nigerian states every three years, causing campaigns to occur every 4-5 years without AMF support.
•GiveWell assessed low risk of crowding out PMI or other funders, and identified the grant as filling a time-sensitive funding need.
•Risks noted include future crowding out, uncertainties in cost-effectiveness models, limited AMF track record in Nigeria, and uncertain use of future revenue.
•Post-distribution monitoring data collection is included as a smaller portion of the grant funding.

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Note: This page summarizes the rationale behind a GiveWell-recommended grant to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF). AMF staff reviewed this page prior to publication. 

 
 
 

 Summary

 
 In January 2022, GiveWell recommended an $8.2 million grant to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF). $4.8 million of this grant was given by Effective Altruism Funds on GiveWell's recommendation, and the remaining $3.4 million was given by donors to GiveWell’s Top Charities Fund in the fourth quarter of 2021. This amount will enable AMF to purchase long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) for campaigns that are scheduled to occur in 2023 in three Nigerian states, all of which primarily receive funding for malaria programs from the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). We expect that if we did not make this grant, the campaigns in these states would be delayed, and therefore that the impact of this grant will be to cause people to receive an LLIN earlier than they otherwise would have.

 We made this grant because we believe it will be highly cost-effective. After investigating the funding landscape for LLINs in Nigeria, we believe that we are at relatively low risk of crowding out other funders, primarily PMI. We also believe that this grant will fill a time-sensitive funding need.

 
 Published: April 2022 

 
 
 Table of Contents

 

 
 
 
 
 Summary 
 

 
 
 Planned activities and budget 
 

 
 
 Case for the grant 
 
 
 
 
 Cost-effectiveness 
 
 
 
 
 How we use cost-effectiveness estimates in our grantmaking 
 

 
 
 Cost-effectiveness of this grant 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Funding landscape for LLINs 
 

 
 
 Time-sensitivity 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Risks and reservations 
 
 
 
 
 Risk of future crowding out 
 

 
 
 Concerns about AMF as a partner 
 

 
 
 Uncertainties in our cost-effectiveness model 
 

 
 
 Uncertain use of future revenue 
 

 
 
 Limited track record in Nigeria 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Plans for follow up 
 

 
 
 Internal forecasts 
 

 
 
 Our process 
 

 
 
 Sources 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Table of Contents 
 1) Summary 
 2) Planned activities and budget 
 3) Case for the grant 
 3.1) Cost-effectiveness 
 3.1.1) How we use cost-effectiveness estimates in our grantmaking 
 3.1.2) Cost-effectiveness of this grant 
 3.2) Funding landscape for LLINs 
 3.3) Time-sensitivity 
 4) Risks and reservations 
 4.1) Risk of future crowding out 
 4.2) Concerns about AMF as a partner 
 4.3) Uncertainties in our cost-effectiveness model 
 4.4) Uncertain use of future revenue 
 4.5) Limited track record in Nigeria 
 5) Plans for follow up 
 6) Internal forecasts 
 7) Our process 
 8) Sources 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 Planned activities and budget

 This $8.2 million grant will enable AMF to purchase LLINs for campaigns that are scheduled to occur in 2023 in three Nigerian states: Benue, Plateau, and Zamfara. 1 
 We expect AMF to use most of this grant to purchase the LLINs required for these campaigns 2 
 and, consequently, for PMI to purchase fewer LLINs and instead spen

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Resource ID: e179ab7e65c79a4b